In little more than a decade, the regime of Nicolás Maduro has pushed Venezuela to the brink of collapse. The crisis in the South American country not only affects its own people but also undermines regional and international stability.
Since 2011, millions of people have been displaced, further exacerbating migration in the hemisphere. Caracas has also entrenched itself as the seat of a narco-state, with the regime’s leadership operating the Cartel of the Suns, a military-led network that serves as a key transit point for narcotics to North America and Europe. It simultaneously provides sanctuary to designated terrorist groups like the National Liberation Army (ELN) and other criminal organizations.
“Venezuela has become a focus of regional and global conflict, rapidly losing allies and associating with controversial and undemocratic actors,” Eduardo Varnagy, a professor at the School of Political and Legal Sciences of the Simón Bolívar University in Caracas, told Diálogo in a 2024 interview.
Venezuela, which has evolved into a ruthless dictatorship that lacks fair elections and transparency, seeks to alter the “international status quo” by backing authoritarian regimes such as those of Russia, China, and Iran. Regionally, it supports Cuba and Nicaragua, while continuing to exert pressure in the Essequibo region, Guyana’s territory, thereby solidifying its destabilizing role, experts contend.
Multifaceted crisis
Venezuela’s prolonged economic collapse is characterized by conditions of severe deprivation. The country’s official minimum wages, now valued at less than $1 per month, is the lowest in the hemisphere. While private sector workers earn an average nominal salary of around $241 per month, public sector employees rely on regime stipends and bonuses to reach a total income of only $160 per month, Venezuelan news media and economic observatories indicated.
The national economy remains mired in recession and high inflation, severely impacting the purchasing power of over 90 percent of the population. This economic hardship, combined with the regime’s failure to maintain order, has led to a surge in violence and crime.
Political uncertainty, endemic corruption, and institutional weakness have systematically destroyed the financial system, resulting in Venezuela being consistently perceived as the most corrupt nation in the Americas. This environment of state decay and impunity is the foundation up which criminal governance, particularly narcotrafficking thrives.
For Varnagy, another concern is the possibility that “Maduro may use Guyana as an external enemy, to distract from Venezuela’s internal problems, a recurrent tactic in the country’s history.” In addition, he stressed that there is concern in the Americas about the continuity of the regime and the possible geopolitical repercussions in the short and medium term.
Narco-state
The regime’s so-called “peace zones,” where security forces initially withdrew with the condition that criminal gangs would disarm, have instead become Venezuela’s most volatile territories, where organized crime flourishes. In these zones, the ELN, dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and other mega gangs such as the Tren de Aragua — formally designated as a terrorist organization by several nations — maintain absolute territorial control. These groups regulate and profit from activities such as drug trafficking, illegal mining, and prostitution, operating with the tacit approval of the Maduro regime.
Current analysis confirms that a large number of criminal groups operate within Venezuela. According to InSight Crime, an organization dedicated to the study of organized crime in Latin America, a core group of organizations, including the ELN and the Tren de Aragua, have the most significant impact due to their economic strength, deep ties to the regime, military capacity, use of violence, criminal alliances, and extensive territorial control.
According to experts, the scale of narcotrafficking is enormous: The Cartel of the Suns and its allies, the ELN and Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, are estimated to have moved more than 600 tons of cocaine through Venezuela in 2023 alone, from which the regime profits. This volume represents nearly a quarter of the world’s cocaine supply.
“Few countries want to be associated with this controversial economic model in Venezuela because of its unconventional practices,” Varnagy said. “This dark economy has global reach. In this context, no one wants to be perceived as complicit in questionable practices.”
Note: This article is a revised and updated version of a report originally published in May 2024.
