The Venezuelan regime of Nicolás Maduro continues its escalating conflict with Guyana over its claim to the Essequibo, through actions by its Armed Forces at different points along the eastern border.
On May 11, General Domingo Hernández Lárez, head of the Strategic Operational Command of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB), announced the construction of a bridge over the Cuyuní River, “to connect with the Guayana Esequiba.” The images released by this military unit show that the bridge over the river connects mainland Bolívar State to Ankoko Island, which legally belongs to both countries per the 1899 Arbitral Award.
The about 28 square kilometers island has no civilian settlements, but Venezuela maintains a permanent military deployment with its Ankoko Island Territorial Security Base and airstrip, essentially occupying Guyana’s portion of the island.
The FANB occupies the island since October 1966, claiming it as part of the territory of the Dalla Costa parish territory, in the Sifontes municipality of Bolívar state. This occupation is a matter of controversy and is considered a violation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement, which seeks a peaceful solution to the territorial dispute. The International Court of Justice accepted in 2020 the case presented by Guyana to resolve the dispute.
More recently, on June 2, Argentine news site Escenario Mundial reported on another piece of information provided by Gen. Hernández, related to the emplacement of the Venezuelan Navy transport vessel ARV Margarita, on the Orinoco River in what corresponds to the Kaituma Integral Defense Headquarters, a new territorial division Maduro created after the approval in December of the Organic Law for the Defense of the Essequibo.
In the photos published by the Venezuelan regime, the military vessel appears anchored perpendicular to the river course, leaving very little space for the passage of other vessels.
According to Phil Gunson, Venezuela researcher for the International Crisis Group think tank, the regime is applying a “belligerent rhetoric” in its claim over the Essequibo. “It is notorious the effort that the FANB makes to give the impression and to boast that it operates within the Essequibo, when in reality it remains on the Venezuelan side,” he told Diálogo on June 9.
Crisis Group, based in Belgium, published several reports on the political conflict in Venezuela. Gunson asserts that the tension over the claim to Guyana serves Maduro’s political purposes. “It is possible that Maduro may decide to provoke some incident if it is useful to him between now and the elections, but I do not anticipate a full-scale conflict. Guyana has very powerful allies, some of whom are explicitly committed to defend it,” he said.
Think tank Center for Strategic International Studies, based in Washington, D.C., revealed through the analysis of satellite images, works for the expansion of the airstrip in Ankoko Island, as well as the emplacement of artillery vessels, aircraft, and anti-aircraft defense systems in Guiria, Sucre state. All this as part of a Venezuelan military escalation on that border, marked by a rhetoric that considers as aggressions any act of Guyana in defense of its territory.
War games
The conflict with Guyana is developing at a time when Venezuela is preparing for a presidential election. In an interview with Diálogo, Venezuelan Army Colonel (ret.) Antonio Guevara said that the escalation of conflict with Georgetown is part of a “wide range” of alternatives available to the Venezuelan regime to put a stop to the scheduled July 28 elections or even ignore its results.
“What is important is not war, but to create a political and military crisis that requires for the elections to be halted,” Col. Guevara said. He added that as part of their studies Venezuelan service members learn about the possibility of a conflict with Guyana. “This is called the black hypothesis,” he said.
In a June 1 entry in his online blog, Col. Guevara indicated that in September 2023, the Venezuelan military conducted an exercise at the Turiamo Naval Base, Aragua state, to simulate an amphibious landing in “some” territory under claim.
“These amphibious exercises with the participation of airborne and landing units seek to face what could happen in the Essequibo. They fit with Guyana due to a political situation that places this event within others, to escalate the conflict,” he said.
He added that the extension of the runway has dimensions that would even allow landings and take-offs of Russian Sukhoi bombers. “These are the most important jet aircraft that the Venezuelan aviation has,” he said.
Col. Guevara went further, indicating that these events are part of a course of action in which “calculated risks” are taken that could influence whether the presidential elections are carried out.
“That can occur in an event in which the Bolivarian revolution takes the initiative and triggers a maritime or border crisis. Then, that makes it necessary to decree a state of commotion, for the service members used for Operation Republic to be withdrawn and be deployed again to fulfill the black hypothesis,” he said speaking of the operation launched nationwide in late 2023 for the primaries with 250,000 service members.
In April, the United Nations Security Council expressed fear about the increase of tensions between Caracas and Georgetown and made a call to both parties for this conflict to be solved by peaceful means.
