In little more than a decade, the regime of Nicolás Maduro has led Venezuela to the brink of collapse. The crisis in the South American country not only affects its own people, but also undermines regional and international stability, Spanish think tank Elcano Royal Institute says in an April 5 report.
According to the report, Venezuela: A Regional and International Problem, millions of people have been displaced since 2011, exacerbating migration in the hemisphere. Caracas has also become a narco-state and key transit point for drugs to Europe via African routes, and a refuge for the National Liberation Army (ELN) and other criminal organizations.
“Venezuela has become a focus of regional and global conflict, rapidly losing allies and associating with controversial and undemocratic actors,” said Eduardo Varnagy, a professor at the School of Political and Legal Sciences of the Simón Bolívar University in Caracas, told Diálogo on April 24.
According to the report, Venezuela, which has evolved into a ruthless dictatorship that lacks fair elections and transparency, seeks to alter the “international status quo” by backing authoritarian regimes such as those of Russia, China, and Iran. Regionally, it supports Cuba and Nicaragua, while exerting pressure in the Essequibo region, Guyana’s territory, playing a destabilizing role.
Multifaceted crisis
Venezuela has suffered an economic collapse, the Elcano Royal Institute stressed. Wages are among the lowest in Latin America, which, according to data from Venezuela’s National Survey of Living Conditions of 2023, reflects an average income for public employees of some $65 a month and an average of $136 for a private worker, Venezuelan news media El Estímulo reported.
The country’s economy is also mired in recession marked by hyperinflation, which significantly affects 90 percent of the population, further exacerbating the difficulties Venezuelan citizens face.
Amid the crisis, violence has increased, while the regime responds with either a disproportionate use of force or little to no control. Fleeing the harsh reality, more than 7 million people have chosen to leave Venezuela, making this one of the largest migrations in the world, second only to Syria, the report indicated.
Political uncertainty, corruption, and institutional weakness have damaged the financial system, keeping market revenues low. Venezuela is perceived as the most corrupt nation in the Americas, nongovernmental organization Transparencia Venezuela said in a January 30 statement.
In the judicial sector, criminal networks ensure impunity by bribing and co-opting judges and prosecutors. Some judicial officials are under investigation by the International Criminal Court for alleged involvement in crimes against humanity, Transparencia added.
For Varnagy, another concern is the possibility that “Maduro may use Guyana as an external enemy, to divert attention from Venezuela’s internal problems, a recurrent tactic in the country’s history.” In addition, he stressed that there is concern in the Americas about the continuity of the regime and the possible geopolitical repercussions in the short and medium term.
Narco-state
The regime’s so-called “peace zones,” where security forces withdrew allowing criminal gangs to take over as long as they laid down their weapons, have instead become among the most dangerous in Venezuela, where criminal organizations thrive. In most of these zones, the ELN, dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, and other mega gangs such as the Tren de Aragua, control territories and regulate activities such as drug trafficking, mining, and prostitution with the regime’s blessing, Elcano highlighted.
Of the 35 criminal groups present in Venezuela, according to InSight Crime, an organization dedicated to the study of organized crime in Latin America, 10 have a significant impact for their economic strength, infiltration of the regime, military capacity, use of violence, criminal alliances, and territorial control.
The ELN tops the list, with more than 1,000 active members in the country. It is followed by the Tren de Aragua, which went from being a prison gang to a transnational threat, extending its operations to countries such as Colombia, Bolivia, Peru, and Chile.
Venezuela has evolved into a “hybrid state,” where illegal armed groups collaborate with the regime.
According to Venezuelan news site ArmandoInfo, each year, the Cartel of the Suns and its allies, the ELN and Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, traffic some 350 tons of cocaine from Venezuela from which the regime profits.
“Few countries want to be associated with this controversial economic model in Venezuela because of its unconventional practices,” Varnagy said. “This dark economy has global reach. In this context, no one wants to be perceived as complicit in questionable practices, only Russia, China, Iran, Nicaragua, and Cuba.”
‘Homeland or death’
Key allies China, Russia, and Iran have allowed the Maduro regime to continue to survive, the Panam Post reported. Their support and interference in the region, while promoting leftist ideologies, are a threat to the sovereignty of other Latin American and Caribbean countries.
“The fear is that Caracas is altering the relationship between the West and the rest of the world,” said Varnagy. “It is not the same thing to maintain democratic relations, as it is to form alliances of the ‘homeland or death’ type and adopt a univocal position in relation to Russia, Iran, China, and Palestine, against Ukraine and Israel.”
“Given the importance of the relations between Venezuela and these countries, it is prudent to take precautions against any eventuality,” Varnagy concluded.
