In the South China Sea, Beijing perfected a method of expansion based on a combination of diplomacy, economic pressure, and dual-use infrastructure. Without resorting to military conflict, it has consolidated its influence in one of the most disputed regions in the world.
Now, a series of similar dynamics is emerging in Latin America, where fishing fleets, port investments, and technology projects are advancing under a cloak of opacity and strategic vulnerabilities, a report by international intelligence publication Geopolitical Monitor indicates. China, without overt aggression, is establishing its presence at all levels.
Jorge Serrano, a security and intelligence advisor to the Peruvian Congress, sums up the situation clearly for Diálogo: “China has long-term projects in all areas in Latin America, and those plans are moving forward with or without consensus. There are no democratic counterweights or political parties that can stop them. Beijing has established a long-term strategy to assert itself in areas it considers a priority.”
Fragile alliances and regulatory loopholes
In Asia, Southeast Asian countries carefully maneuver to balance their ties with China without sacrificing sovereignty. In Latin America, alliances show similar fragility. Honduras broke diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 2023 to recognize Beijing, reportedly enticed by economic incentives. Brazil, a founder of the BRICS group, seeks autonomy but faces increasingly dependence on Chinese investment.
In Argentina, recent agreements between the province of Santa Cruz and the Chinese company Fuzhou Hongdong to build shipyards and fishing plants have sparked tensions in Patagonia, fueled by a lack of national oversight and concerns over environmental and economic risks.
In Chile, the purchase of utility company Compañía General de Electricidad (CGE) by the state-owned State Grid raised China’s share of the electricity market to more than 50 percent, a move that, as Chilean daily El Mostrador points out, generated serious regulatory concerns.
These dynamics underscore the diagnosis of Geopolitical Monitor: “China is part of the gray areas in Latin America, where the promise of development can lead to strategic dependence.” As in Asia, the battle for influence is not fought with weapons, but with contracts, investments, and weak regulatory frameworks.
“At the level of advancement that China has achieved, Latin American countries do not have the economic, military, technological, or logistical capacity to counter it,” Serrano said. “Only actors with similar geopolitical power could act, establishing strategic initiatives to counter its expansion.”
Dual-use infrastructure
Dual-use infrastructure — serving both civilian and military purposes — is the hallmark of Chinese expansion. In the South China Sea, artificially constructed islands on contested reefs, fortified with runways and military installations, consolidate regional control. In South America, the strategy is more covert but equally effective. The port of Chancay in Peru, controlled mainly by the state-owned COSCO, is emerging as the new logistics hub of the South Pacific, even as questions persist about the real extent of China’s influence.
A contentious project is the industrial complex planned for Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. The agreement, signed with Shaanxi Chemical Industry Group, includes a chemical plant and a multipurpose port in Rio Grande. The project raises warnings about strategic, military, and Antarctic access risks due to its location. Local media, such as DF SUD, warn that such infrastructure could open the door to military uses, compromising national sovereignty.
The Espacio Lejano Space Station, also in Argentina, operates under strict confidentiality clauses, fueling suspicions about its real purposes. China already manages at least eight other stations in the region, from Brazil to Venezuela, according to the Center for Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL). These facilities are reminiscent of the artificial islands China built on disputed reefs in the South China Sea. Initially disguised as civilian infrastructure, like fishing shelters, they were ultimately transformed into permanent military stations.
“China is advancing in Latin America with strategic dual-use infrastructure. It is doing so for economic and geopolitical interests that no government, whether right-wing or left-wing, wants to [risk] opposing,” Serrano said. “Furthermore, its economic pressure translates into political and diplomatic influence.”
The invisible fleet and maritime disputes
China deploys one of the largest deep-sea fishing fleets off the coast of Latin America. Its vessels operate in the exclusive economic zones of Argentina, Ecuador, and Peru, engaging in illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, effectively plundering resources while evading national controls.
“These practices erode international norms without direct military confrontation,” Serrano explains. “China exerts pressure through the mere presence of its fleets. In Asia, it has used coercive maneuvers, while in Latin America, it repeats the pattern of overexploitation and indirect pressure.”
Simultaneously, the Essequibo dispute between Venezuela and Guyana is testing the limits of Chinese influence. Following new oil explorations and a Venezuelan referendum, Guyana reminded China that the dispute is still pending before the International Court of Justice, after a Chinese diplomat suggested bilateral negotiations. Guyana’s foreign minister stressed that Beijing must respect Guyana’s territorial integrity.
Serrano points out: “China does not wage wars or deploy troops in Latin America, but it advances by other means. In Venezuela, it supports Maduro with advance oil payments, identification systems, and military training. It also inserts itself into maritime tensions. In this way, it projects the same gray zone dynamics in the region as it does in Asia.”
Redefined sovereignty: the new gray zone
The Latin American experience is beginning to resemble, disturbingly, that of the South China Sea. The pressure is not military, but economic, technological, and narrative, weakening regional autonomy and creating dependencies that could last for decades, warns Geopolitical Monitor.
Sovereignty, in this context, is redefined as the real capacity for action rather than merely status. Political and economic stability will depend on constant vigilance and robust regulatory frameworks.
“China has demonstrated in Asia how these strategies work. Now, its projection in Latin America suggests that the gray zone can reshape global influence without the need for open warfare,” Geopolitical Monitor concludes.
In the new global geopolitics, power advances quietly. And in Latin America, the invisible archipelago of Chinese influence grows every day, without a single shot being fired.
