Russia and Iran have intensified their influence in Latin America following the invasion of Ukraine, employing asymmetric strategies such as propaganda, military cooperation, and support for non-state groups to strengthen their ties with like-minded regimes and expand their presence in the region. Such were some of the findings of a recent report from think tank Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS).
According to Vladimir Rouvinski, director of the Department of Politics and International Relations at ICESI University in Colombia, “both countries, with converging interests, seek to erode democracy in Latin America,” he told Diálogo on August 30. “Russia aims to weaken U.S. influence, while Iran seeks to expand its network of allies and challenge the Western-led international order.”
The late July CSIS report notes that Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, allies of Russia and Iran, help evade international sanctions and strengthen the military capabilities of both states. Their cooperation covers various fields, including weapons and intelligence development.
Russia and Iran seek to attract Latin American leaders with power aspirations, aligning them with their interests to undermine the established rules-based international order, Spanish digital magazine Política Exterior reported.
Moscow and Tehran’s limited economic influence could make them even more dangerous in the short term, allowing them to focus on disruptive actions without major diplomatic consequences. The growing coordination between both countries in Latin America is especially worrisome, the CSIS report warns.
Propaganda and disinformation
Russia and Iran capitalize on the fragmentation of Latin American media to disseminate narratives, through state-owned platforms RT en Español and Hispan TV, which undermine support for Ukraine and favor their geopolitical interests in 13 countries in the region, CSIS said.
The convergence between both countries’ influence operations could be seen just before the invasion of Ukraine. On January 28, 2022, in an article on Hispan TV, Chilean journalist Pablo Jofré Leal called for an anti-U.S. coalition led by Russia, China, and Iran. Leal is a frequent contributor to Hispan TV, RT en Español, and Telesur and adapts the messages from Moscow and Tehran for the regional audience, CSIS indicated.
“The Russian strategy in Latin America is based on strategic communication, using state information tools, to generate disproportionate impact with limited resources,” Rouvinski said. “As such, they take advantage of existing divisions and deepening social polarization, which weakens democracies in the region.”
In parallel, neo-fascist groups such as New Resistance, have expanded their influence by promoting pro-Russian narratives and praising Iran and Hezbollah. A U.S. State Department report notes that the Brazilian branch of this organization, Nova Resistência, seeks to unite the extreme right and the radical left to destabilize the region.
“Both Iran and Moscow share a media strategy in Latin America, questioning the international order and promoting a new model,” Rouvinski said. “Moreover, they seek to position themselves as leaders of that new world order, taking advantage of the fertile ground they find in the region to expand their influence.”
“This strategy is complemented by flexible tactics, in which both countries form alliances and spread propaganda through networks in media and academic circles, including in countries with more solid democracies,” Rouvinski added. “This has led some media to spread Russian propaganda disguised as legitimate analysis.”
Military cooperation
Russia and Iran are gaining ground in strategic markets and expanding their military presence in Latin America.
An example of this expansion took place in June, when a flotilla of Russian ships accompanied by a nuclear submarine arrived at the port of Havana, Cuba, the BBC reported. A month later, in July, a Russian Navy training ship arrived off the Cuban coast and docked in Venezuela in August.
Russian military influence in the region was further consolidated in June 2022, when the Daniel Ortega-Rosario Murillo regime in Nicaragua allowed a significant Russian military presence, including troops, ships and aircraft, under the guise of training, security, and humanitarian aid, the CSIS report indicated. Since 2014, more than 3,700 Russian soldiers have participated in joint military activities with Nicaraguan forces.
In addition to military presence, Russia strengthens its influence in Latin America through the construction of strategic infrastructure, such as the GLONASS ground station, installed in Nicaragua in 2017, “supposedly to fight drug trafficking, but to date there is no known anti-drug operation in which it has participated,” Guatemala’s Prensa Libre reported. This technological network and its similar ones in Brazil, complement Russian military and intelligence operations in the hemisphere, CSIS said.
Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, which have limited the supply of arms to its traditional partners in Latin America, Russian influence is still present through maintenance and technical support of weapons previously acquired, CSIS added.
For its part, Iran is taking advantage of the reduction in Russian arms sales to expand its influence in the region, particularly in Venezuela, according to the report. This growing collaboration raises concerns about regional security, especially in the context of the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana, where Iranian weaponry could destabilize the region.
Foreign actors
According to CSIS, Iran, through the terrorist group Hezbollah, together with Russia, has intensified its influence in Latin America by infiltrating criminal networks and deploying paramilitaries. Hezbollah, with a presence in the Triple Border between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay for more than a decade, extended its criminal activities, including money laundering, to Venezuela.
Following the recent disputed election in Venezuela in which Nicolás Maduro declared himself a winner once more, Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries were said to have been spotted on the ground, with footage and photos circulating on social media appearing to show a man in camouflage wearing a Wagner Group patch. Russia had previously sent some 400 mercenaries from Wagner Group to Venezuela in 2019, to protect Maduro during unrest. With the resurgence of transnational criminal organizations, both Moscow and Tehran are likely to see new opportunities to offer “security assistance,” CSIS said.
“Unlike Western democracies, where the use of surveillance tools is regulated, Russia and Iran operate without restrictions,” Rouvinski said. “This allows them to employ tactics such as the use of mercenaries in the Ukrainian war and support for terrorist groups, practices that could become more common in Latin America as their influence grows.”
New policies
The deepening relationship of Russia and Iran with their partners in Latin America is cause for concern. The lack of caution from some Latin American governments can render it easier for these countries, with a history of instability, to consolidate their influence in areas such as security, military, economics, and culture, putting regional stability at risk, Rouvinski said.
“The perception is growing that Russian and Iranian meddling in Latin America poses a serious threat. In response, it’s imperative to design policies to strengthen political actors in the region that share this concern and adapt to the changing geopolitical dynamics of the region,” Rouvinski concluded.
