Sinaloa Cartel Will Dominate Drug Trafficking in Mexico in 2011

By Dialogo
January 07, 2011

Pssst. With Felipe Calderon's administration nothing has been done and the narco-trafficking has increased more than in past years. and the truth is how were they able to locate Kalimba so quickly in Texas and they weren't able to quickly locate that shorty Guzman and J.J.? What I am getting at is that this government is complicit with all of this and I really made a mistake in voting for Calderon.
The unprecedented violence in Mexico in 2010 originated in the war without quarter between Los Zetas and the ‘New Federation,’ an alliance headed by the Sinaloa cartel, which according to the U.S. intelligence consulting firm Stratfor could dominate the world of drug trafficking in 2011.

“We will be watching for indications that the Sinaloa Federation and any new friends it may make along the way are becoming the dominant organized-crime entity throughout Mexico,” states a report published by Stratfor (http://www.stratfor.com), considered one of the leading consulting firms on security issues.

The firm calculates an increase in homicides of between 60 and 70% in 2010 compared to the previous year. Since December 2006, when Felipe Calderón’s administration launched a military offensive against drug trafficking, more than 30,200 deaths have been recorded, almost half of them in 2010, according to official figures.

Stratfor gives an account of the birth of the ‘New Federation’ at the beginning of 2010 as a consequence of the rupture between the Gulf cartel and ‘Los Zetas,’ the cartel’s former subordinates.

The Gulf cartel turned to its old enemy, Joaquín “el Chapo” Guzmán, head of the Sinaloa cartel, as well as to ‘La Familia’ [‘The Family’], a criminal organization operating out of the western state of Michoacán.

The members of the ‘New Federation’ – an updated version of an alliance among cartels that was in place in Mexico until 2008 – have Los Zetas as their common enemy, but each member continues to operate its own routes.

Los Zetas were on the defensive due to the advance of the Gulf cartel in their traditional territories and were a target of the Mexican military, the consulting firm declares.

Created in the 1990s by elite military personnel who deserted in order to work with the Gulf cartel, Los Zetas have spread along the entire Mexican east coast, from the state of Tamaulipas, on the border with the United States, to the Guatemalan border.

The Sinaloa cartel, based chiefly along the Pacific (in western Mexico), controls a large part of the U.S. border from the city of Tijuana, in the extreme northwest, to Ciudad Juárez (in northern Mexico), a strip of territory bordering on the U.S. states of California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas.

The organization led by “El Chapo,” who has been a fugitive since 2001 and for whom the United States and Mexico are offering millions in reward money, struck a deal with the cartel led by the Arellano Félix brothers in Tijuana and recovered “control of key territory in the region, giving the group clear business and tactical advantages over the Juarez cartel,” reduced to two urban areas, the document adds.

The security consulting firm believes that President Calderón would need foreign assistance to gain control of security, especially in the northern part of the country, but this option is unlikely due to the political opposition it would generate.

The “second scenario involves a dominant entity purging or co-opting its rivals and reducing the violence,” with the capacity to manage the drug business more freely, the report warns.

However, the consulting firm believes that this would require “some degree of complicity from elements of the Mexican government.”

The authorities “could reach an implicit, unwritten agreement” that would decrease the violence and the high-impact homicides that show up in the form of beheaded, hanged, and burnt corpses, as well as the murders of mayors and police officers, José Luis Piñeiro, a specialist in national security and a researcher at the Metropolitan Autonomous University, told AFP for his part.

If Calderón promotes an equilibrium among cartels, he would be gambling on indirect control, but not on decreasing their military and operational or financial and economic capabilities, Piñeiro added.

The researcher pointed out that the Stratfor report does not consider the high number of poor people in Mexico, almost 46 million according to official figures. “If 1% of this population turns to organized crime, that’s a reserve army” of slightly less than 500,000 people, he warned.



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