Recent blows to dismantle Hezbollah in the Middle East and the vacuum and instability in its command apparatus could prompt the terrorist group to make tactical adjustments to amplify its criminal actions in Latin America, Italian media OFCS Report, which focuses on geopolitics, indicated in a recent report.
“With the annihilation of Hezbollah’s leadership networks, we could soon witness an atomization of the group, especially in regions such as Latin America,” Henry Ziemer, a research associate with the Americas Program at the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Diálogo. “It’s possible that in the coming years we will witness elements of Hezbollah in Latin America seeking greater autonomy, similar to the ‘franchise’ of Al Qaeda and ISIS/ISIL, after the power centers of those groups were eliminated.”
With the support of complicit nations, Hezbollah has in Latin America a network to finance its transnational criminal activities through various illicit operations, including narcotrafficking. Meanwhile, its main sponsor, the Islamic Republic of Iran, facilitates its presence in the region by building advantageous relations with authoritarian regimes, Real Clear Defense, a U.S. media that specialized in defense and security issues, reported.
“This outcome could lead to a branch of Hezbollah that is even more integrated in the region, that works closely with transnational criminal groups, as well as criminal organizations such as Venezuela,” Ziemer said. “It risks exacerbating the challenges already facing Latin American governments as they try to contain narcotrafficking and violence in and around their borders.”
Dina Siegel Vann, director of the American Jewish Committee’s Arthur and Rochelle Belfer Institute for Latino and Latin American Affairs, told the press that Hezbollah constantly seeks opportunities to activate sleeper cells and scout the terrain for future operations.
“Hezbollah’s presence in Latin America is difficult to disentangle from transnational networks of arms trafficking, drug trafficking, and money laundering,” Ziemer said. “The discovery of a Hezbollah cell that plotted in 2023 to carry out attacks against the Jewish community in Brazil demonstrates that the group remains willing and able to plan aggression throughout the region; but much of the group’s day-to-day operations appear to be more focused on illicit financial flows, to fill its coffers.”
In recent months, Israel has launched several attacks against Hezbollah. As such, the terrorist group is reportedly recruiting new fighters, trying to find ways to rearm through domestic production and smuggling of materials through Syria, South Asia’s global strategic affairs news media StratNews Global reported on December 5.
Yossi Mansharof, a senior fellow at the Israeli think tank Misgav Institute for National Security, told the press that Hezbollah will have to launch a major fundraising effort to try to rebuild itself, as “they need billions of dollars, which Iran cannot give them because it is in an economic crisis.”
Argentina pointed in October 2024 to Hussein Ahmad Karaki as “the head of Hezbollah in Latin America,” directly linked to the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, Uruguayan newspaper El País reported. Karaki is still active and is allegedly responsible for at least three attempted attacks in Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil in recent years.
The crucial challenge is to get countries to dismantle the nodes in the supply chain, and may require security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and capacity building between partners, reported U.S. magazine Foreign Policy.
“It’s important to know who is in charge of Hezbollah’s operations in the region, as it is equally important to know how it moves, who supports it, who it is in contact with,” Emanuele Ottolenghi, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told Argentine news site Infobae. “At this moment, with the conflict lingering in the Middle East, it is possible that Hezbollah is trying to put together plans for attacks in places like Latin America. That’s why getting this news out is important. It can help lower the risk of these attacks.”
