In a recent report, news site Jewish Insider (JI) warns that Hezbollah may be incentivized to hit targets abroad as a response to the situation in Lebanon. This could translate into increased risks of attacks in Latin America, as well as a surge in criminal activities to finance operations.
Hezbollah’s internal crisis has global implications. There is “an incentive for [Hezbollah] now to try to hit soft targets abroad in response to what is happening to them in Lebanon,” Emanuele Ottolenghi, senior fellow at think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Hezbollah expert, told JI. “The risk [to Jewish communities] has always been there, latent and present.”
The neutralization of Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon on September 27, 2024, the group’s leader since 1992, represents a major blow to Hezbollah. According to Uruguayan political platform Diálogo Político, this situation brings uncertainty about the future of its operations, particularly in regions such as Latin America, where it maintains an active presence.
Following Hezbollah’s attack on Israel in 2023, countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Chile saw an increase in acts of vandalism, hate speech, and threats against Jews and Jewish institutions, Argentine news site Infobae reported. This reflects the direct impact of the group’s influence in the region.
“This organization operates fluidly throughout the region, with significant control in South America to carry out its activities. This reality significantly increases its level of dangerousness,” Jorge Serrano, advisor to Peru’s Congressional Intelligence Commission, told Diálogo.
Expansion in Latin America
Hezbollah’s operations originated in the Triple Border between Paraguay, Brazil, and Argentina, taking advantage of the presence of Lebanese communities and weak law enforcement to engage in money laundering. It then extended its presence to Venezuela, backed by its alliance with Tehran, JI reported.
Israel’s Ambassador to Costa Rica Mijal Gur Aryeh said in October 2024 that the Lebanese Shiite group also operates in Bolivia and Nicaragua, as part of an axis promoted by Iran. According to Gur Aryeh, the Daniel Ortega-Rosario Murillo regime is a key ally of Tehran, which he described to Spanish news organization EFE as “the greatest promoter of global terrorism.”
“In Bolivia the presence of the Lebanese paramilitary group was consolidated due to its close alliance with Iran, a state sponsor of international terrorism through Hezbollah and the Quds force, a division of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that carries out extraterritorial operations and supports Shiite militias,” Serrano said. “This link was strengthened during successive Evo Morales administrations, making Bolivia a key ally of Hezbollah in the altiplano.”
The U.S. State Department also warned about the presence of this terrorist group in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Panama, and Peru. In 2023, Brazilian authorities thwarted an attempt by the group to attack the Jewish community, revealing its recruitment networks.
Five Latin American countries (Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, and Paraguay) consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization, JI reported. The lack of consensus, however experts say, may limit countries’ ability to take coordinated action against the controversial organization.
Illicit resources
In Latin America, Hezbollah finances itself through narcotrafficking and related crimes, the criminal proceeds of which are laundered through legal businesses. According to Diálogo Político, this scheme enables members of the Lebanese community with ties to Hezbollah to occupy positions of socioeconomic influence in strategic sectors.
According to Yossi Mansharof of the Israeli think tank Misgav Institute for National Security, Hezbollah is undertaking a major money-raising campaign, describing it as “the biggest project in its history, after suffering its worst setback since its creation in 1982. They need billions of dollars,” he told JI.
For Serrano, Latin America represents fertile ground for raising those funds. “Due to its links with drug cartels, this terrorist group will not face economic constrains and will enjoy a constant and significant flow of financial resources.”
For Ottolenghi, following Israel’s elimination of much of Hezbollah’s top leadership, “the survival of the movement is at stake. The challenge will be how to get that money into Lebanon. While the ability to transfer funds could be diminished, the incentive to increase it could be even greater.”
“Although Hezbollah has suffered significant losses, its structure remains intact. This organization operates horizontally, which makes it difficult to dismantle,” Serrano said.
Inherent dangers
On October 25, 2024, Argentina pointed to Lebanese Hussein Ahmad Karaki as the leader of Hezbollah’s operations in Latin America, and of being responsible for the bombing of the Israeli Embassy in 1992 and the AMIA attack two years later. Karaki entered Argentina in 1992 and fled to Brazil with a false passport, hours before the embassy bombing.
After the assassinations, Karaki, who lives in Lebanon, disappeared from intelligence radar in 1994, AP reported. However, he is believed to have resumed his activities in 2000. He is also believed to have been involved in the planning of several recent attempted attacks in regional countries such as Brazil and Bolivia. Karaki maintained a direct line of communication with Nasrallah.
“Argentina is confirming to us that Hezbollah continues to plan attacks, thwarted thanks to the intelligence work of the Israeli Mossad and the CIA,” Serrano said. “In November 2023, during Operation Trapiche, Brazil thwarted two planned attacks. In addition, in Bolivia it planned to blow up a building linked to Israeli interests.”
Hezbollah finds itself in a favorable environment to carry out terrorist activities, due to the boom in narcotrafficking in South America. The ever-increasing levels of cocaine production and its connection to drug cartels create an environment conducive to the Iranian proxy’s operations. “All that’s left for this organization is to determine a date and place for another attack in the region,” Serrano said.
In addition, the recent emigration of thousands of Lebanese to Latin America after the Israeli invasion sparks concerns, as it is not known whether there are Hezbollah members among them.
For Serrano, intelligence agencies serve as the main shield against Hezbollah, following up on and sharing key information to prevent threats. “Although it is difficult to prevent attacks with attackers willing to immolate themselves, these information-sharing institutions operate effectively, beyond the governments in office,” Serrano said.
“It is urgent that Latin American countries recognize this real threat and alert the public,” Serrano concluded. “An informed citizenry is needed, to detect and report suspicious activities related to terrorist networks.”
