A recent agreement between Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy and the Chinese state-owned China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) has raised significant concerns about China’s expanding geopolitical influence and its potential impact on Brazil’s strategic autonomy. The letter of intent, signed during the BRICS summit in Brazil in July, is focused on energy cooperation, but critics warn of the broader implications of deepening ties with Beijing.
CGN, the world’s third-largest nuclear energy company, already holds a significant presence in Brazil through its renewable energy projects. However, this new partnership, which includes cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear mineral resources, particularly Brazil’s uranium reserves, is seen by some as part of a broader strategy by China to extend its influence into a highly sensitive sector.
“The institutions involved in the agreement already indicate the scope,” says lawyer, journalist, and strategic environmental consultant Antônio Fernando Pinheiro Pedro. “Thus, the seemingly peaceful universe of cooperation forms a ‘cover’ for technology transfer… which conceals the extraction of uranium and its shipment to China — which, obviously, will not be limited to the use of raw materials for civilian purposes.”
Geopolitical influence and strategic leverage
Some analysts view this partnership as a key component of China’s strategy to expand its influence in Brazil and across the Global South. By offering capital and technology, China can gain strategic leverage over its partners, which could influence Brazil’s foreign and energy policies. This raises questions about Brazil’s foreign policy and whether deepening ties with China could lead to a reliance that undermines its strategic autonomy and puts its relationships with other traditional allies at risk.
According to political scientist Lohanna Reis, China’s advances in the nuclear sector challenge traditional technological leadership of established powers. “By leading nuclear innovation, China can create new technological dependencies, where developing countries that adopt Chinese nuclear technologies become more aligned with Beijing’s interests.” This dynamic could give China a strategic advantage in trade negotiations and diplomatic agreements, potentially redefining global nuclear safety and non-proliferation norms to benefit its national interests.
Safety, security, and supply chain vulnerabilities
A major concern is that increasing the number of Chinese-built nuclear plants could elevate the risk of nuclear-grade materials falling into the wrong hands, especially in regions with political instability or terrorist activity.
This partnership also carries the risk of technological dependence. If China dominates the entire nuclear and renewable energy supply chain, Brazil could lose its ability to innovate independently. This heavy reliance on a single supplier for critical components in the energy sector could make Brazil’s infrastructure vulnerable to disruptions or market manipulation.
Historical context
Some analysts draw parallels between China’s current investments and Latin America’s historical relationships with other global powers. There are concerns that this partnership could accelerate deindustrialization, making Brazil’s economy more reliant on exporting raw materials like uranium while importing manufactured goods from China. This is consistent with a pattern that has been observed in other countries that have deepened their economic ties with China.
Historical accounts of past nuclear cooperation between Brazil and China, particularly during periods when neither country was a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), further underscore the potential for bypassing international safeguards. While the current agreement is for peaceful purposes, this history highlights the risk of a new form of asymmetric dependency where Brazil’s strategic autonomy is compromised.
As consultant Pinheiro Pedro analyzes, “There is an asymmetrical strategic alignment in this context, as China has an assertive geopolitical posture, based on the Belt and Road Initiative of global expansion, through the pursuit of infrastructure, trade, and technology. Brazil’s stance is reactive, which can lead to strategic dependence and loss of autonomy in critical decisions.”
