The global maritime order, a pillar of international trade and security, faces growing threats. In a recent report, think tank the Atlantic Council, states that China and Russia, through clandestine fleets and armed groups, are upsetting the international rules that govern the oceans, putting consistency and commercial flow at risk.
The stability of the seas is vital for the world economy, and while it might have taken a while for rules and treaties to embody the concept of the free sea, these agreements have worked. For instance, in 2021, some 2 billion metric tons of cargo was transported globally, compared to 100 million in 1980. This stability has allowed for the expansion of essential basic infrastructures such as oil and gas pipelines and submarine cables, the report indicates.
Violations of the world maritime order are however rampant. In the past few years, for example, Russia has repeatedly violated international regulations prohibiting the attack of merchant ships with civilians or civilian goods in the Black Sea. In response, insurers have raised the risks in this area, demanding special permits for vessels sailing in the affected waters, the Atlantic Council indicated.
Russian naval expansion
Russia has sought to expand its maritime presence with a new naval doctrine, which reinforces its capacity to operate in foreign waters, Spanish daily ABC, reported.
The Kremlin also intends to establish new bases in the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean, and the Persian Gulf, as well as reinforce its fleet in the Black Sea, improving its naval infrastructure in Crimea and guaranteeing access to Kaliningrad. According to Moscow, these measures are essential for the defense of Russia’s strategic and economic interests.
“However, as long as the conflict in Ukraine is still active, the expansion of Russian logistics bases will have a limited impact,” security expert Jorge Serrano, an advisor to Peru’s Congressional Intelligence Commission told Diálogo. “Moscow does not have sufficient resources to deploy military vessels to strategic points far from its territory, and the geopolitical scenario is changing drastically.”
Russian interference in navigation systems
The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea requires all ships over 300 gross tons, as well as passenger ships, to use the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to improve maritime safety, assist in search and rescue operations, and facilitate information exchange, the Atlantic Council states.
It also points out that Moscow deliberately interferes with AIS in the Black Sea and other maritime areas, including the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland. Between 2016 and 2022, almost 10,000 incidents of suspected interference with AIS and GPS were recorded, affecting more than 1,300 civilian ship navigation systems. This manipulation of signals puts the safety of navigation at risk.
“Russia has been evading and manipulating navigation systems since World War II as part of its electronic warfare,” said Serrano. In addition, “it is intensifying the deployment of warplanes and intelligence aircraft near countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain, evidencing an increasingly aggressive stance.”
Maritime border and illegal fishing
China is also challenging maritime borders through the construction of artificial islands in disputed areas and the sabotage of undersea cables and oil pipelines in Exclusive Economic Zones. These actions, which are difficult to attribute and sanction, demonstrate its growing desire to unilaterally modify the maritime status quo, the Atlantic Council states.
Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, practiced by the Chinese distant water fishing fleet with the backing of the Chinese government, further exacerbates the situation. IUU fishing, often linked to organized crime networks, not only plunders fishing resources, but also encourages forced labor and drug trafficking, destabilizing the regional maritime security in which these vessels operate.
“The Chinese fishing fleet operates in all seas with the backing of its government, acting covertly, especially at night,” Serrano said. “Many Latin American countries avoid putting too much pressure on this issue, as China is their main trading partner. Denouncing maritime depredation could affect their economic relations.”
China has not ratified key conventions against IUU fishing and has the highest global incidence of this practice. Its fleet accounts for 65 percent of the undeclared catch on the high seas, generating geopolitical and economic concerns in Latin America, according to a report from the Núcleo Milenio on the Impacts of China in Latin America and the Caribbean, an interdisciplinary research center based at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile.
In the face of these threats, “it is essential that Latin American countries protect their trade routes and maritime interests through cooperation with strategic allies to strengthen surveillance, supervision, and security of the seas,” concluded Serrano. “Only this way can state or non-state agents be prevented from violating maritime security.”
